Survey spans four countries including Australia
A significant gap has emerged between what business leaders and workers expect from artificial intelligence. While more than two-thirds of firms report actively using AI tools, the two groups hold sharply different views on whether the technology will create or eliminate jobs.
The disconnect complicates workforce planning as AI adoption accelerates. When executives and employees hold opposing assumptions about what comes next, organisations may face a tougher path aligning hiring plans, reskilling efforts and change management.
The US National Bureau of Economic Research published findings from a survey of 6,000 firms across the United States, United Kingdom, Germany and Australia. The study asked both executives and employees about AI’s effects on their workplaces over the past three years and their expectations for the next three.
More than 80 per cent of executives indicated AI had no measurable impact on either employment or productivity during the prior three-year period, according to the research. Even so, executives projected modest shifts ahead: productivity rising 1.4 per cent, output increasing 0.8 per cent and employment falling 0.7 per cent over the coming three years.
Workers expect job gains, not losses
Employees surveyed held a different view. Workers expected employment to rise by 0.5 per cent over the same period—a direct contrast to the 0.7 per cent decline forecast by their bosses, the survey found.
That split creates practical challenges for HR teams and line managers. Workforce planning typically depends on shared expectations about headcount direction. When leaders anticipate reductions while staff expect growth, communication gaps can widen and resistance to change may increase.
Text generation leads AI adoption
Roughly 69 per cent of firms surveyed actively use AI, with text generation emerging as the dominant application, the research found. The survey also reported that 72 per cent of senior executives personally use AI at work, averaging 1.5 hours per week.
The strong uptake of text-based tools—such as chatbots, drafting assistants and summarisation—suggests many organisations have already embedded AI into everyday workflows. Customer service, internal communications and knowledge work appear positioned as early areas of use.
Australian firms in the mix
Australian companies were included alongside peers in three other major economies. The findings point to a broader pattern: high adoption rates, limited measurable impact so far, and uncertain expectations about what comes next.
For Australian employers, the results may shape discussions about automation strategy. Firms weighing AI investments could treat the survey’s modest productivity projections as a reference point for internal targets. The expectation gap between management and staff also indicates HR teams may benefit from clearer communication about AI’s intended role.
Tracking AI’s real workplace effects
The survey frames artificial intelligence as already present in most workplaces, but with effects that remain difficult to quantify. The finding that 80 per cent of executives reported no productivity gains may indicate benefits take longer to appear—or that common measurement approaches fail to capture them.
Signals to monitor include whether productivity and employment figures shift as adoption deepens, and whether the gap between executive and worker expectations narrows over time. Sector-specific data—particularly in text-heavy industries—may provide earlier indicators.
Australian firms now have a benchmark from a four-country study that includes local businesses. How closely local outcomes track these international findings could influence future AI investment decisions across the economy.
